Cyclical long-term holders of Bitcoin, excluding those who have held for over seven years, now control less than 50% of Bitcoin’s total supply, a notable decline from over 60% earlier this year.
This shift signals changing dynamics in the Bitcoin market, with significant implications for its current cycle.
Cyclical long-term holders, excluding the ultra long-term holders (>7y), now hold less than 50% of #Bitcoin’s supply, down from over 60% earlier this year. How much runway remains? Realized Cap HODL Waves provide the granularity needed to assess where we are in the cycle:… pic.twitter.com/u44ORHGXxq
— glassnode (@glassnode) December 10, 2024
Follow Bitcoin’s Predictive Patterns
Bitcoin market cycles typically follow a predictable pattern: long-term holders dominate in the early stages of the cycle, and as prices peak, short-term holders (new investors) often own the majority of the wealth, sometimes over 70-80%. This cycle, however, is being influenced by the introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs, creating a new layer of complexity. Long-term holders are traditionally defined as those holding Bitcoin for more than 180 days, and many of the early ETF-driven buyers now fall into this category. This shift caused the 6-12 month cohort to grow to 25% of Bitcoin’s wealth by August.
Since October, this group has started to shrink, currently holding 16%. This reduction isn’t alarming as it aligns with typical distribution patterns at key price levels and could reflect profit-taking by early Bitcoin ETF buyers. However, the 1-2 and 2-3 year cohorts, representing investors who accumulated during the June-November 2022 bear market, are also reducing their holdings. This could indicate that seasoned investors are taking profits, signaling that the market may be entering a mid-to-late cycle phase.
The 3-5 year cohort peaked at around 15.3% in November and now stands at 13.9%, showing early signs of distribution. Despite this, current prices may not yet be compelling enough for these holders to sell in large quantities, leaving some room for further growth.
#Bitcoin miners sold 771 $BTC in the last 24 hours, totaling around $76 million! pic.twitter.com/dh8Eg8vEnp
— Ali (@ali_charts) December 10, 2024
Meanwhile, Bitcoin miners have sold 771 BTC in the last 24 hours, totaling roughly $76 million. Analysts suggest that Bitcoin must hold above $96,000 to avoid a potential drop to $85,000. On the positive side, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $479 million on December 9, continuing eight consecutive days of inflows, with significant contributions from BlackRock and Fidelity.
I think it is very important for #Bitcoin $BTC to hold above $96,000. Otherwise, we could repeat last year’s pattern, with a potential drop to $85,000! pic.twitter.com/xVOX41Fek0
— Ali (@ali_charts) December 10, 2024
Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.
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